LEC Summer Split 2020 Week 4 Preview
The LEC Summer Split enters it's fourth week this weekend and we have a few thoughts on this one. Esports Vikings have compiled this ...
The first two weeks of this season have been like online CS would look, full of underdog victories. Sure, Rogue and the MAD Lions are anticipating playoff teams, but hardly anyone could have guessed that this duo would hold the top spot in the league in their names after two weeks. Pre-favorites Origen and G2 Esports, which underperformed in the first week, washed their faces in the second week, taking purely two wins in their names. Instead, Fnatic, which was at the top of the league, tried Soraka in the hands of Rekkles a little too boldly this time and managed to lose to both Origen and the MAD Lions. Thanks to the cross-play, after five rounds played, the top spruce is within one win from each other and while we’ve seen a lot of surprising results, the top spruce has all six teams projected there except Misfits Gaming.
The third match week offers great entertainment for the spectators, because not only will it be decided by the stunning encounter of arch-enemies between Fnatic and the G2, it is promised e.g. Fnatic-Rogue, SK Gaming-G2 Esports and MAD Lions-Origen match pairs. So far, this week is the most exciting for the fixture list and it may be that important points will be resolved here in terms of playoff places and chart placement. More information about the league and teams can be found on the events page.
Schalke swapped the representative team and the academy team bot Lane for the duo’s heads last week and for the second match, FORG1VEN, who had been benched in early spring, was dug up. Although the team looked a little more cheerful with new players, there was still nothing in the winning stats. Last week in advance, we bet on changes to Schalke and in a way they were already received. Excel has only won once, so here’s Schalke’s chance to win the opening win. If the opening victory doesn’t come, it’s very possible that Schalke will have to turn his gaze outside the academy team. Both teams have looked really weak in their first matches, but Excel has even shown some sort of signs of life at times. It doesn’t automatically make Excel a pre-favorite for this pair of matches, but it does mean that Excel has a chance to surprise one of the teams above and Schalke has little hope of that. Schalke is offered a odds of 2.4 and that is by no means a bad choice to play as this pair of matches is fairly even in advance. Assuming the field has a Neon-Dreams duo in Schalke's lineup.
In relation to my own expectations, both teams have underperformed. Sure, both are just a win away from the playoffs at the moment, but even more disappointing is what the teams ’games have looked like. I really expected a lot from Kobbe coming to Misfits and Milica’s debut at Vitality. Unfortunately, neither has been able to knock down teams ahead or alongside the advances. However, it must be borne in mind that Misfits ’match schedule in particular has been really raw and its easier opponents are yet to come. However, the fact that Misfits lost to SK Gaming and Vitality to both Rogue and MAD Lions knows that very likely this duo will fight each other for the last playoff spot and therefore this match means REALLY a lot. The Misfits have now gotten the hardest part of the match program behind them and are leaving for this match to show that it is part of the playoff squad. Misfits is a clear favorite in this encounter, although playing for either team isn’t very appealing in light of the odds.
The biggest surprise and disappointment of the season. Sure, G2 took two wins last week and lifted themselves back into the top-of-the-line team, but those wins didn’t come purely or necessarily even easily. SK Gaming has knocked down teams like Misfits and Origen, but on the other hand, it has given Excel their only victory. SK Gaming has shown strong grips, but as you would expect from a fresh and young line-up, its evenness is still missing. Unfortunately, the G2 is one of the best teams to take advantage of weaknesses like this and thus it is a strong favorite. However, on a good day, SK Gaming has knocked down strong teams and is able to play well over four odds. The G2 is a favorite, but not some clear favorite.
The MAD Lions schedule has not been the toughest possible, but it has already faced both G2 and Fnatic and is still in a 4-1 situation. Now we are faced with that “third great,” that is, Origen. Both of these teams took wins from Fnatic last week and now promise a tight twist on top spot. When it comes to style of play, these two teams are about as far to the extreme as is currently possible at LEC, so there’s an interesting match in the offing in that sense too. Although compared to the spring season, the playing styles of both are now clearly closer to each other. MAD Lions want to play aggressively and take advantage of every strike, while Origen plays risk-free and relies on his team fighting power. I will raise MAD as a Lions pre-favorite, although the match is a very smooth encounter in advance. Betting sites have made Origen a great favorite, so if you get more than two odds for MAD Lions, it’s worth grabbing it.
Fnatic totally lost it last week. For the most part, the problem was in the drafts, but the performances on the playing field also left something to be desired. Rogue, on the other hand, has humiliated teams lurking below the playoff line and has taken full advantage of the easy match schedule. However, the G2 stopped Rogue’s winning streak last Saturday and now the level will be tested by another pre-favorite. Fnatic has seen weeks that have been full huts before, but usually Fnatic will return stronger to the next week than before. I think this will happen again this time and I will raise Fnatic as a favorite.
A boring middle caste encounter or possibly a decisive match for a playoff spot? I would say the latter. The two teams made the biggest changes to their lineups before the summer season and the performance of both has improved as a result. SK Gaming's level has risen from the tail of the series to a potential playoff team.
The misfits are surprisingly at the bottom of the table, but don’t let the ranking fool you. Misfits has played a really difficult match schedule and now it gets to enjoy easier opponents. There is one win between the teams, but in terms of misfits it is clearly ahead and through that also a clear favorite for this match.
If I gave Schalke a little spark of hope against Excel, then the same cannot be said of the Origen match. This is a good place to sit on the FORG1VEN bench to show that the level or mental upperhand is no longer enough for LEC matches.
Starting in the third week, this duo is at the top of the series, although it is very possible that the situation is no longer the case when we start this match. Either way, this match is crucial in the sense that the winner will at least be in the top spot at the end of the third week as well. In the spring season, the playoffs were surprised by nine wins and by the end of this week, one of the teams will have at least five wins when more than half of the matches are still unplayed. It is difficult to bet on the winner and betting sites have come to the same conclusion. Personally, I believe in the victory of the MAD Lions, but if any match is 50-50 starting then it is the battle of this duo in its current state.
If this match had been played a week ago I would have bet on a very steady battle for this and possibly even an advantage for Fnatic. However, the matches of the second week of play showed that G2 has gotten the package together and Fnatic’s trials didn’t live up to their place at all. Now the starting points have turned upside down and the G2 is a clear favorite. Still considering the final of the spring season, which has become completely overflowing with mental pressure, betting against the G2 is really risky.
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